Fairly mixed outlook at DZ HYP “Economic, interest rate and currency forecast 2025”
10.02.2025
At the beginning of February, Dr. Michael Holstein, Chief Economist at DZ Bank, provided an in-depth outlook for the financial and real estate markets in the current year at DZ HYP's “Economic, interest rate and currency forecast 2025” event. Around 1,000 guests followed the event via livestream. After a welcome address by Sabine Barthauer, Chair of the Management Board of DZ HYP, the renowned journalist Anja Kohl took over the moderation.
In his remarks, Dr. Holstein made it clear that Donald Trump's tariff policy could have far-reaching consequences for Germany. This applies in particular to automotive and mechanical engineering companies, as well as to the pharmaceutical industry. Regardless of tariffs and US policy, the economy in this country is likely to stagnate again this year, with renewed growth not expected until 2026 at the earliest. With regard to interest rate policy, further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) are expected, up to a level of 1.75 percent. The outlook for the DAX was good, because the companies listed there depend more on the robust global economy than on the weakening economy in Germany and parts of Europe. Although the US tariffs are likely to be reflected in the stock markets over the course of the year, overall the forecasts remain positive.
Finally, the real estate markets were examined in detail. Dr. Holstein confirmed the industry's widespread assumption that the price correction has been overcome. After residential real estate, commercial real estate prices are also tentatively rising again. However, caution is advised with the latter, as the recovery could also take a break depending on the economy.
Anja Kohl brought numerous questions from the audience into the discussion, which made the event an interactive format. An update on the forecasts made is planned for the fall.